Research Aim 3: Advanced Modelling

In this Research Aim, we will assemble an advanced observation-based sap flow model.

Inputs will include results from:

• anatomical observations of sap flow based on imaging techniques (from Research Aim 1) and test-site observations of sap flow (from Research Aim 2),
• select models from literature and international data, and
• our own advances in the modelling of heat transfer, solar radiation and freeze-thaw events in sugar maple

The model will be used to predict tree stem pressure, optimum growing conditions and locations in our maritime climate, and sap-harvesting strategies to maximise yield.

We will use this model, coupled with other costs to determine the economic viability of establishing a tree syrup industry in Aotearoa New Zealand. Data includes estimating capital cost requirements for an intensified horticultural-style row-crop of tree syrup, including the cost of trees, land, equipment for harvest, and sap-to-syrup conversion facility. The capital cost will be depreciated and combined with projected operating costs, including labour costs for crop maintenance and harvest, sap-to- syrup conversion energy costs, and packaging consumables. This will result in a projected internal rate of return and net present value.